Vocational Training: Does it speed up the Transition Rate out of Unemployment?

In this paper we estimate, for the 1989-93 period in Belgium, the effect of vocational classroom training on the rate of transition out of unemployment. We show that rationing of the demand for training increases the unemployment duration of non-participants, an effect neglected in programme evaluations. We propose a “control function” estimator accounting for variable treatment effects and identifying the average treatment effect on the treated by means of exogenous sub-regional variation in the training capacities. During participation, the transition rate decreases by 27%. Afterwards it increases by 62%. Making training available for a broader population would, however, reduce the effectiveness of the programme.